Centar za Bezbednosne Studije

The advisory opinion by the International Court of Justice at the Hague that Kosovo’s declaration of independence from Serbia does not violate international law could be expected at the time of Serbia’s asking for this opinion. When the motion was submitted to the UN General Assembly to seek the advisory opinion Serbia’s policy makers were warned that the opinion could easily go against them and were openly advised by a number of European countries to give up the attempt and opt for a negotiated settlement with Kosovo Albanians. At the time, a territorial division of Kosovo was still possible, but the arrogance of Belgrade’s political establishment and their belief that they could outwit anyone made them blind to the abyss they were to plunge the country in. The day after the General Assembly decided to seek the advisory opinion Belgrade newspapers were full of Dionisian, ecstatic proclamations of a “diplomatic triumph”. Tomorrow, they are likely to be full of somber comments on the “partiality of the world powers” and “historical injustice”. Not at one single moment in the whole process did anyone in the political or media establishment stop and ask themselves whether there was a right on the side of the Kosovo Albanians, whether there were arguments against the Serbian position, and what it really was that made Serbia such an unsuccessful foreign policy player, even when compared to such smaller neighbours as Croatia or Montenegro.

This last foreign policy debacle open the door to a further internal fission of Serbia: the conflict that was generated with the Muslim community in Sandžak, which has dramatically escalated over the past few weeks, is likely to further escalate and start assuming some of the dynamic features of the Kosovo conflict. The Bosniak community is likely to start seeking an internationalization of the problem, which could have been resolved within Serbia by properly respecting the outcome of the local elections in Novi Pazar, and the Serbian defeat at the United Nations may easily repeat itself through the Sandžak dispute.

Further, the defeat erodes the credibility of Serbia as a state, and is likely to lead to a further distancing of the province of Vojvodina from the Serbian mainland. Until all these issues are finalised Serbia is not likely to be allowed access to more energetic European integrations, and is likely not just to lose its aspirations to the status of a regional leader; it is almost certain to become the region’s laggard in a very short time. The current dynamics of foreign policy failures suggests that Serbia may see a further disintegration vis-à-vis the Bosniak community in Sandžak and most or all of the province of Vojvodina as early as within three years.

The ICJ opinion is a landmark in recent Balkan history: it marks a departure from the self-preoccupation of the Serbian political elite and its facing the realities of the world outside, which reflect their inability to perform in governance, as opposed to their desire to rule. Serbia is thus weakened and faces a re-awakening only if its intellectual and media elites can find it in themselves to show integrity and courage to tell the truth and lead the way to a new political elite. Otherwise, the prospect of the region’s permanent laggard appears unavoidable.

Aleksandar Fatić

Director of the Centre for Security Studies